• Swindon & Wiltshire Economy
• Monday April 14 2025

‘Short-term caution, longer-term optimism,’ major business survey finds

A major survey of Thames Valley businesses has found “short-term caution, but longer-term optimism” about their prospects.

Domestic pressures like the increase in National Insurance contributions and external pressures like Trump’s export tariffs mean many businesses have cut back on investment and are increasing prices “just to stay afloat.”

In fact, 49 per cent of businesses said they would be hiking their prices over the next three months. Only four per cent said they planned to lower their prices.

Those were among the findings of the Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce quarterly economic survey.

The in-depth survey also found concerns about the introduction of the Employment Rights Bill, which includes day-one unfair dismissal protections, sick pay from the first day of absence, and protections for employees on zero-hours contracts and “threatens to increase costs and administrative burdens at a critical time.”

Like the survey in Q4 2024, the Q1 2025 survey found taxation to be the biggest concern for Thames Valley businesses.

Sixty-five per cent of respondents said taxation was their biggest concern – way above the national average of 55 per cent and significantly higher than inflation (34 per cent), and interest rates (22 per cent).

At 60 per cent, labour costs were cited as employers’ biggest price rise pressure. The cost of utilities and raw materials were also a significant factor.

Paul Britton, CEO of Thames Valley Chamber of Commerce, said: “The looming increase in National Insurance contributions has been a long-standing concern for businesses across the UK, and now in reality, it’s adding to the growing challenges that firms are already facing.

“In addition to domestic pressures, exporting businesses have recently faced a fresh blow with new tariffs imposed by the US, compounding the strain. These combined cost pressures, both at home and internationally, are creating a burden for businesses.”

Sue Staunton, managing partner of James Cowper Kreston, which helped crunch the regional numbers, added: “The survey also revealed a degree of confidence in the Thames Valley around overseas trade with 55 per cent reporting that overseas sales were constant and 31 per cent reporting that they were experiencing an increase in overseas sales orders.

“It was, of course, after this that the US tariff arrangements were unveiled and it will be interesting to see how businesses feel about the global trade landscape once the impact of these starts to be felt.”

There were glimmers of hope in the longer term, though. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said their turnover had increased over the last three months, with only ten per cent saying it had worsened.

And 31 per cent said their workforce had increased over the past three months, with 19 per cent saying it had decreased. Over the next three months, 49 per cent of firms said they would take on more staff, while only eight per cent said they planned to make cuts.

The quarterly economic survey is a leading indicator, often picks up changes in the economy long before other surveys and official statistics and consistently mirrors trends in official data.

It is closely watched by both UK Government and the Bank of England.

Pictured: In towns like Newbury, business owners are worried about the impact of taxes and tariffs