• Swindon & Wiltshire News
• Tuesday December 14 2021
• Author Name: Peter Davison

More jobs, more in work, fewer unemployed say government statisticians

Unemployment in the UK fell in October despite the end of the furlough scheme according to official figures released today by the Office for National Statistics.

The ONS said the unemployment rate fell to 4.2 per cent – or 1.4 million people – in the three months to the end of October; down from 4.3 per cent in the three months to the end of September.

The number of workers on company payrolls also increased by 257,000 in November from a month earlier – the largest monthly rise in payroll employment since 2014.

There are now 29.4 million workers on company payrolls – almost half a million more than pre-Covid levels – although many are in part-time work.

“The number of part-time workers decreased strongly during the coronavirus pandemic, but has been increasing since April to June 2021, driving the quarterly increase in employment.,” noted the authors of the Labour Force Survey.

The ONS said it was likely that some furloughed workers could yet move into unemployment because they might be working out their notice periods.

“However, responses to our business survey suggest that the numbers made redundant were likely to be a small share of those still on furlough at the end of September 2021,” said the ONS.

And the number of job vacancies continued to rise to a new record of 1,219,000, an increase of 434,500 from the pre-coronavirus January to March 2020 level, with 13 of the 18 industry sectors showing record highs.

The ONS also found that wages were on the increase. In August to October 2021, annual growth in average total pay, including bonuses, was 4.9 per cent and regular pay, excluding bonuses, was 4.3 per cent.

But in October, inflation – as measured by the Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and energy costs – was running at 4.1 per cent year-on-year.

Commenting on the report, Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce, said: “Rising payroll employment and falling unemployment confirm that the UK jobs market has continued to rebound strongly despite a slowing recovery and the end of furlough.

“Record vacancies underscore the severe recruitment crunch facing businesses. Although the changes to Covid self-isolation rules are welcome, with coronavirus and Brexit driving a structural decline in available labour, staff shortages may persistently constrain economic activity.

“Although labour demand remains robust, Plan B may damage the jobs recovery by squeezing hiring intentions in those sectors most exposed to the new measures, including hospitality and retail, by diminishing their cashflow and dampening customer demand.

“While current labour market trends provide no barrier to raising interest rates, uncertainty over the economic impact of the Omicron variant means a December rate hike is unlikely. Interest rates may start rising from February 2022, but only if concerns over the new variant have faded.

“More support is urgently needed to aid those firms worst effected by Plan B, including returning VAT for hospitality and tourism back to its emergency rate of 5 per cent, reinstating full business rates relief for these firms and making additional grant funding available.”

The full report can be found at https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/december2021