• Swindon & Wiltshire Economy
• Wednesday May 28 2025

Nearly half of mid-market firms trading with US expect to stop completely – survey

Nearly half of UK firms exporting to the US said they expected to stop trading with the country in the wake of Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement.

That’s one of the key findings of the latest Business Outlook Tracker from Grant Thornton, a rolling survey of 6,000 businesses in the UK.

The survey was conducted after Trump’s tariffs announcement, but before the UK signed its trade deal with the US.

Of the businesses that had a trading relationship with the US – 68 per cent of the total – 45 per cent said they expected to stop trading with the US completely, and 25 per cent expected to scale down cross-Atlantic trade.

Only nine per cent reckoned they would not be impacted.

Meanwhile, the Business Outlook Tracker optimism indicators have declined since they reached record highs at the beginning of the year, but remain above average levels seen across the last four years.

The survey found that eighty per cent of businesses were optimistic about the UK’s economic prospects over the next six months – down three percentage points since February – and 59 per cent expect their organisation’s profits to increase in next six months – down eight points since February.

Alan Richardson, tax partner at Grant Thornton UK in the South, said: “Mid-market businesses are the real powerhouse of the UK economy. Their plans, actions and opinions are a clear bellwether of our economic health.

“This survey was undertaken in light of the Government’s Spring Statement and six months after the Autumn Budget, both of which contained significant fiscal announcements which created cost increases for businesses in many areas. That mid-market leaders remain this positive is notable.

“Having faced the considerable challenges of the last five years, dominated by the pandemic and its after-effects, many businesses are now hard-wired to withstand sudden shocks and have built resilience into their business model.”

The survey results are the latest indication that UK businesses have been spooked by the erratic actions of the unpredictable US president.

The May NatWest Growth Tracker survey, published two weeks ago, found Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs had a negative effect on business confidence in the South West.

Pictured: Donald Trump by Michael Vadon, published under Creative Commons licence