• Swindon & Wiltshire Economy
• Wednesday May 14 2025

Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs hit South West business confidence in April – Natwest

Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs had a negative effect on business confidence in the South West, according to a new survey published today (Wednesday).

Researchers contacting firms in the region for the monthly NatWest Growth Tracker survey found increased global economic uncertainty, particularly related to US tariff announcements, was significantly impacting demand across various regions, with confidence the lowest recorded in nearly two-and-a-half years.

Interviews were conducted in the days after April 2 – when Trump announced ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on trading partners.

However, the results of the tracker show that economic output from the region’s manufacturing and service sectors grew slightly in April, with the index resting at 51.9 – 50.0 being no change, anything less being a reduction.

As such, the South West was the only region in the UK to report output growth – although it was slower than the five-month high of 54.0 recorded in March.

Read more: Nearly half of mid-market firms trading with US expect to stop completely

Commenting on the Tracker’s findings, Sebastian Burnside, chief economist at Natwest, said: “The tracker this month reflects the challenges that economic uncertainty can create for UK businesses of all scales.

“Firms across the UK reported a challenging start to the second quarter, with demand for goods and services falling in all areas amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty and rising prices.

“The South West bucked the wider trend, however, and was the only region monitored by the survey to see business activity increase in April.

“It’s encouraging that firms are still looking to the future with some optimism, although growth expectations are lower than they have typically been in the past.

“Rising labour costs have added to pressure on businesses, following April’s increases in National Insurance contributions and minimum wages.

“As firms look to mitigate rising costs, we’ve seen average prices charged for goods and services increase at faster rates, as well as a greater focus on workforces.

“Labour markets in all areas of the UK have felt the impact to some degree in recent months, with only Scotland avoiding a fall in employment in April.

“We cannot ignore the backdrop during which this survey was carried out but regardless, as we’ve seen in the past, UK business is resilient and can always offer reasons for optimism throughout.”

Pictured: Donald Trump by Michael Vadon, published under Creative Commons licence

Latest: South West business activity continues growth trajectory – Natwest