• Swindon & Wiltshire Economy
• Thursday January 25 2024
• Author Name: Peter Davison

Most workers worse off in UK’s flatlining economy, with Bristol (just about) bucking the trend – report

Workers in Bristol are among a handful in the UK whose disposable incomes are better in 2024 than they would have been had pre-2010 economic trends continued, according to a new report. But not by a lot.

With 2024 being an election year, the Centre for Cities think tank looked at the 63 largest cities and towns across the UK, and crunched the data to determine whether workers would have been better off had economic conditions from the 14 years to 2010 – when the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition seized power from Labour – persisted.

The Cities Outlook 2024 looked at the income growth between 1998 and 2010 and compared it to income growth for the years 2010 to 2022 – a period of “economic malaise”.

Researchers found that in all but seven cities – including Bristol – workers were worse off. In Bristol, the change in disposable income per person was £50 a year.

In Slough, the average person is £720 a year worse off worse off than they would have been if pre-2010 economic trends had continued. In Reading, workers are £5,920 a year worse off. And in Swindon, the average person is £9,210 a year worse off – high, but still under the national average of £10,200.

The problem, however, is not due to the lack of jobs, but the lack of productivity growth – – the key driver of higher wages.

The report notes that while there were 74,020 more jobs in Bristol in 2022 than 2010 (up 19 per cent) productivity increased by 0.2 per cent each year between 2010 and 2022, compared to 1.5 per cent per year between 1998 and 2010.

In Swindon, there were 4,030 more jobs in 2022 than in 2010 – an increase of four per cent. But productivity decreased on average by 0.1 per cent each year between 2010 and 2022, compared to 1.5 per cent per year between 1998 and 2010.

In Reading there were 46,090 more jobs in 2022 than in 2010, which is up 28 per cent – the third highest for jobs growth in the UK. Productivity increased by 2.2 per cent each year between 2010 and 2022, compared to a 1.5 per cent increase between 1998 and 2010.

And in Slough, there were 2,900 more jobs in 2022 than in 2010 – an increase of four per cent. Productivity increased by 2.7 per cent each year between 2010 and 2022, compared to a 1.5 per cent increase between 1998 and 2010.

“A major economic headache for the coalition government in 2010 was how to get the economy creating jobs again to offset the impact of the global financial crisis. Given what has happened over the past 14 years, this will be less of a concern for the next government,” says the report.

“Improving productivity must be the focus of the next parliament if economic performance since 2010 isn’t to be repeated over the remainder of the 2020s.

“Both main parties have committed to focusing on growth and taking a long-term approach to this. But how serious they are will be shown by the policies they put in place,” say the report’s authors.

That said, Slough, Reading, Swindon and Bristol are all above the national average for productivity. Slough tops the league table with a Gross Value Added per hour of £62.90. Reading is fourth with £48.60, Swindon sixth with £47.50, and Bristol 14th with £36.60.

Andrew Carter, Chief Executive of Centre for Cities, said: “Both the two main political parties have pledged to grow the economy and the general election debate will have growth at its heart. The challenge for the next Government is to go beyond the rhetoric and to do what’s needed to make this rhetoric a reality.

“The UK has had a torrid time since the Great Recession. Everywhere, up and down the country, including places that were doing relatively well before, has been levelled down because of the lack of growth. To get growth in every place, the next Government needs to act at a radically different pace and scale, and mark the beginning of a multi-decade policy programme.

“The first step in a realistic approach to grow the economy is to recognise that the British economy is an urban economy. Cities account for nine per cent of the land and over 60 per cent of the economy, as well as 72 per cent of high skilled jobs.

“Their slowdown is at the heart of why the national economy is struggling. There is no plausible way of achieving higher growth without increasing the innovation and dynamism of urban Britain.

“This means reforming the planning system to enable cities to grow, devolving more powers and financial freedoms to encourage our big cities to make decisions that support growth, and following the levelling up rhetoric with bold actions.”

The findings of the report have led to the mayors of some of the UK’s biggest cities calling for greater autonomy and investment.

And in the foreword to the report, Mayor of Bristol Marvin Rees said: “As this report from Centre for Cities shows, UK plc has stagnated since 2010. My home city of Bristol is the only Core City ahead of the national average for productivity.

“We are one of very few places where gross disposable household income per head is up, however negligibly, since 2010, compared to what would have been if 1998-2010 growth rates had been sustained.

“The solution is simple. Cities must be empowered to help unlock and unleash the full potential of our country.”

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